Forecasting the Price of Oil | Semantic Scholar How useful are oil futures markets in forecasting the price of oil? How useful are survey forecasts? How does one evaluate the sensitivity of a baseline oil price forecast to alternative assumptions about future demand and supply conditions? How does one quantify risks associated with oil price forecasts? Ron Alquist, Lutz Kilian, Forecasting the price of oil - IDEAS/RePEc Downloadable! We address some of the key questions that arise in forecasting the price of crude oil. What do applied forecasters need to know about the choice of sample period and about the tradeoffs between alternative oil price series and model specifications? Are real or nominal oil prices predictable based on macroeconomic aggregates? Does this predictability translate into gains in out-of Forecasting Crude Oil Price Volatility
Jan 21, 2020 EIA expects that crude oil prices will remain elevated in the first few months of 2020, reflecting a price premium on crude oil from recent
Much of the work on forecasting the price of oil has focused on the dollar price of oil. This is natural because crude oil is typically traded in U.S. dollars, but there also is considerable interest in forecasting the real price of oil faced by other oil-importing countries such as the Euro area, Canada, or Japan. Are Product Spreads Useful for Forecasting Oil Prices? An ... Are Product Spreads Useful for Forecasting Oil Prices? An Empirical Evaluation of the Verleger Hypothesis Christiane Baumeister Lutz Kilian Xiaoqing Zhou Bank of Canada University of Michigan University of Michigan Oil price forecasts affect the economic outlook of … Forecasting crude oil price movements with oil-sensitive ...
for the commodity spot price which proves to have superior forecasting ability. Alquist, Ron and Lutz Kilian (2010), “What do we learn from the price of crude oil.
Thus, given the mounting importance of oil price volatility forecasting for decision making, developing appropriate forecasting practices, is in fact a challenging field of study. A common ground shared by all studies on oil price volatility forecasting, as we show below, is that they do not assess the usefulness of the futures-based models. Real-Time Forecasts of the Real Price of Oil forecasting of U.S. real GDP growth on the basis of lagged oil prices, but rather on generating real-time forecasts of the real price of oil. Our analysis is more closely related to the recent literature on real-time forecasts of the nominal price of oil (see, e.g., Alquist and … Forecasting the price of oil (eBook, 2011) [WorldCat.org] Forecasting the price of oil. [Ron Alquist; Bank of Canada.] Home. WorldCat Home About WorldCat Help. Search. Search for Library Items Search for Lists Search for Contacts Search for a Library. Create lists, bibliographies and reviews: or Search WorldCat. Find items in libraries near you
Forecasting the Price of Oil | Request PDF
Much of the work on forecasting the price of oil has focused on the dollar price of oil. This is natural because crude oil is typically traded in U.S. dollars, but there also is considerable interest in forecasting the real price of oil faced by other oil-importing countries such as the Euro area, Canada, or Japan.
Ron Alquist - Google Sites
Forecasting the Price of Oil. Ron Alquist a, Lutz Kilian b and Robert J. Vigfusson c, a Bank of Canada, Ottawa, ON, Canada, b University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, USA, c Federal Reserve Board, Washington, DC, USA, b E-mail: firstname.lastname@example.org. Abstract. We address some of the key questions that arise in forecasting the price of crude oil. What do applied forecasters need to know about the Real-Time Forecasts of the Real Price of Oil: Journal of ... Mar 21, 2007 · We consider a variety of forecasting models including versions of models that have been shown to work well in the related context of forecasting the nominal price of oil (e.g., see Alquist, Kilian, and Vigfusson 2011 Alquist, R., Kilian, L. and Vigfusson, R. J. 2011. “ Forecasting the Price of Oil ”. WHAT DO WE LEARN FROM THE PRICE OF CRUDE OIL …
22 The aRT anD sCienCe of foReCasTing The Real PRiCe of oil BAnk OF CAnADA ReVIew • SPRInG 2014. course of oil prices (Alquist and Arbatli 2010). When communicating policy decisions, many central banks have highlighted the importance of oil futures Forecasting the Real Price of Oil in a Changing World: A ... Working Paper/Document de travail 2013-28 Forecasting the Real Price of Oil in a Changing World: A Forecast Combination Approach . by Christiane Baumeister and Lutz Kilian Forecasting Energy Commodity Prices: A Large Global ... ship between oil/commodity prices and stock market returns. For example, Kilian and Park (2009) and Kang et al. (2016) study the relationship between oil prices and the aggregated and industry-disaggregated stock market in the U.S. Abhyankar et al. (2013), related oil price increases with a decline in the Japanese stock mar-ket. CiteSeerX — Forecasting the Price of Oil